Week 5 Picks

Hey guys. Derf here, back to give you guys some Week 5 picks. I figure Friday is a good day to do it, and intend to do it earlier in the day on Friday's to give everyone time to get their bets and office pool picks in. Of course, I started writing this on Friday afternoon and got distracted adn now it's technically Saturday...but still. Fantasy Football opinions will either be up later in the day or sometime tomorrow. Anyway, right on to the picks.

Indianapolis Colts (-3) at Houston Texans - This one is shaping up to look nothing like I figured it would before the season started. I had expected the Texans to have already won two games and the Colts to be undefeated. Oh how I love the NFL. Anywho, the Texans need to win this game, but unfortunately for them the Colts do as well. If the Colts don't make the playoffs it will be a colossal disappointment and I think that after their bye week they should come out crisp and be making plays from the get go. The final score will be close, but the game won't really be.
Colts 28 Texans 21

Tennessee Titans (-3) at Baltimore Ravens - Baltimore probably should have won that game on Monday night against the Steelers. Unfortunately for them they didn't and now they are due to play another hard nosed football game against the Titans this week. The Titans have looked good... Really good, which makes it weird to pick against them. I have no rhyme or reason other than my gut instinct, but for some reason I think that the Ravens will win. Ray Lewis' team isn't going to get out physicaled two weeks in a row.
Titans 13 Ravens 21

San Diego Chargers (-6.5) at Miami Dolphins - The last time we saw the Dolphins they were laying a whipping down on the Pats with their Wildphin offense. Most people don't think we will see it be too effective as the season continues, but I think it will be. Ronnie Brown is not human. Everyone seems to forget that he was on his way to leading the NFL in yards from scrimmage on the worst team in the league last year until he got hurt, and the game against the Pats was proof that he's back. Yeah, the Chargers have a lot of talent on their team, but they are just one of those teams that doesn't always play to their talent level. Can't do that against a Parcells team.
Chargers 20 Dolphins 24

Kansas City Chiefs (+10) at Carolina Panthers - The Chiefs aren't that good of a football team. They aren't going to win a lot of games this year. However, that said, they run the ball very well, well enough that they should be able to stick close enough to Carolina to cover. The Panthers should win this game easily, but they won't. They are one of those teams who plays down to their opponents. They will win though.
Chiefs 13 Panthers 20

Washington Redskins (+6) at Philadelphia Eagles - Sometimes I wonder how they come up with the spreads on some games. I know they come up with a spread to get appropriate betting on each side, but is there really that many Eagles supporters. The Redskins just went in and beat Dallas at Dallas. The Eagles lost to Dallas a few weeks ago and are fresh off a loss to the Bears. I don't care that they were one yard from beating the Bears or a fumbled hand off from possibly beating Dallas. Philly continues to find ways to lose.
Redskins 24 Eagles 21

Chicago Bears (-3.5) at Detroit Lions - Lions and *cough* and Bears! Oh My!..... Seriously though. The Chicago Bears and Kyle "I rock a grizzly beard" Orton (seriously, if it wasn't for that beard could you pick Orton out of a police lineup?) beat the Eagles on Sunday, but that wasn't pretty. The Bears always play hard to pick games. Can you really trust them to win? In other news, The Lions always play hard to pick games. Can you really trust them to win? I think the Lions are the pick here, but thats only cause I think they are owed one for Matt Millen.
Bears 14 Lions 28

Atlanta Falcons (No Line) at Green Bay Packers - There is still no line on this game because of the uncertainty of Aaron Rodgers. Whether or not he plays should only affect how many points the Pack are giving up. Either way I think the Pack will win this one. Matt Ryan is still too raw to take advantage of a beat up Packers secondary and other than the fact that their secondary is battered, the Packers are the better team hands down.
Falcons 20 Packers 27

Seattle Seahawks (+7.5) at New York Giants - If Plaxico Burress wasn't set to miss this game with a suspension, nobody would be worried about the Giants losing to the Seahawks this week. That said, I'm not worried about the Giants losing to the Seahawks this week. Seattle was only a slightly above average team these last few years, they just play in the weakest division in football. They have to fly across the country to play the Giants, who are likely to be in in something to prove mode with Plax out.
Seahawks 17 Giants 31

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3) at Denver Broncos - When given the choice between a bad quarterback and a bad defense, I'll often go with the bad QB. In this case, I think Champ Bailey is way overdue for a multi-pick game, and Brian Griese is just the kind of QB that will giftwrap him one he can take back for a touchdown. Cutler will probably go off as well, cause Brandon Marshall has been all but uncoverable these last few weeks.
Bucs 17 Broncos 28

New England Patriots (-3) at San Francisco 49ers - This section is going to be a lot longer than it really needs to be. The 9ers have looked like any Mike Martz team for the past few years, they can score in oodles, but Martz's offense leaves the defense in bad situations far too often. There is my obligatory thing about the 9ers. The Pats just lost by 20something to the Dolphins, and are coming off a bye week. All I needed to say.
Patriots 38 49ers 16

Buffalo Bills (+1.5) at Arizona Cardinals - This is that game that everyone wants to bet on (or at least should at first glance). There is an unbeaten team playing, well.... the Arizona Cardinals.... And they are getting a point and a half. I've spent most of the week trying to figure out this line and I just plain don't get it. So I'm just gonna go with what logic tells me and pick the Bills. Just don't say I didn't warn you that there was something foul afoot.
Bills 24 Cardinals 17

Cincinnati Bengals (+16) at Dallas Cowboys - I thought the Bengals looked good against the Giants, that maybe they could get their act together.... But not with Ryan Fitzpatrick at the helm. I think Palmer will play this week, but I don't think it matters. The Cowboys are going to hand it to em and hand it to em well. Caution for the future though Cowboys fans, the T.O. clock is ticking.
Bengals 20 Cowboys 41

Pittsburgh Steelers (+4) at Jacksonville Jaguars - This should be a solid Sunday night game. I love teams that run the ball and play good defense, and that's what both of these teams set out to do every week. Unfortunately, neither club has it's full compliment of RBs totally healthy, with the Steelers much worse off. The Steelers have also been having a lot of trouble with the Jaguars for the past few years, and I think it's gonna continue. They'll cover though.
Steelers 14 Jaguars 17

Minnesota Vikings (+3) at New Orleans Saints - Why is New Orleans only a 3 point favorite at home? I know their pass defense is bad, but the Vikings offense is even worse. Drew Brees has been playing out of his mind...as usual... so I guess well within his mind but still blowing my mind. Lance Moore, Robert Meachem? Don't matter who Brees throws to, dude is just plain awesome. I like the home team in a boring Monday Nighter.
Vikings 14 Saints 31

The Derf Rankings Week 5 2008

And with introductions out of the way, let's get right into content shall we? Gonna start off on a fun note with my first power rankings. I'm going to do these weekly hopefully and they reflect how everyone is playing that week, not how I think everything will shake out. I intend to do things a little differently than most rankings do though and count it down by starting with the worst team in the league. Gotta keep you reading right?

• 32. St. Louis Rams (0 - 4) - Yeah, talk about the obvious way to start a list. This team has been bad all over so far this year. Where to start? Their offense has managed 43 point in 4 games which is last in the NFL. The defense has let up 147 points through 4 games, also last in the NFL and 30 points more than the next closest team (Denver). They benched their starting QB going into week 4. And on top of that they fired head coach Scott Linehan Monday, promoting D Coordinator Jim Haslett. This is one of those teams where the playoffs are already out of the picture and the players are likely to be playing for their jobs all year.
• 31. Detroit Lions (0 - 3) - Honestly, this part of the list is really easy to work on an is fairly straightforward. The Lions continue to be bad bad bad. They would be the worst team in the league in any normal year if it wasn't for the Rams being embarrassing. At least they finally fired Matt Millen. Now there is at least hope in Detroit. Don't be surprised if they show up this Sunday. Divisional game at home against Kyle Orton and the Bears. As long as they have Williams and Johnson they can win any game.
• 30. Cincinnati Bengals (0 - 4) - The Bungles are back! Cinci has been really bad through week 4 save the hard game they played against the Giants. Palmer is hurt and didn't play Sunday and if you thought the Bengals looked bad with Palmer you haven't seen Ryan Fitzpatrick try to run the offense. They couldn't score much against the not so intimidating Browns defense. If Palmer doesn't play Sunday at Dallas you have every right to change the channel. This game is going to make some really pissed off when one of those Jimmy Kimmel DirecTV commercials comes on. On a side note, anyone else start Carson in fantasy this week thinking he'd play? Lost this week cause of it.
  
• 29. Houston Texans (0 - 3) - I know that the Texans probably aren't going to be this bad all year. They have a shot to beat Indy at home on Sunday, they really do. I just can't rate a team that hasn't beat anybody at all higher than a team that has won a game. You are the amongst the worst when you haven't beaten anyone and you are amongst the best until someone beats you. Yeah, little foreshadowing.
• 28. Cleveland Browns (1 - 3) - I'm really surprised that Brady Quinn didn't get in there on Sunday after Anderson's miserable first half. I expect Anderson to be replaced fairly soon. After four games this year he doesn't anything like the Quarterback we saw last year lighting up the scoreboard. They are gonna put the first round pick in there and start getting him experience sooner rather than later.
• 27. Kansas City Chiefs (1 - 3) - The win today bumped them out of competing with the Rams for worst in the league but I don't think they'll get too many more of them this year. I think with LJ, who is still a good Running Back no matter what anyone says, they will probably be able to get 4 or so wins on the year, probably upsetting a good team late in the year as their young guys get more playing time. Don't expect anymore dominant looking performances like the one on Sunday. They had a good day the same day the Broncos had a bad one.
• 26. Oakland Raiders (1 - 3) - I'm higher on the Raiders than most people. They lost their last two games in the fourth quarter after they had a good lead in the first half. They would be ranked higher but I think Al Davis is going to make a mistake and fire Lane Kiffin. Kiffin has done pretty well with the guys he has been given and with all the distractions (fine, the one huge distraction) and doesn't deserve to be fired after 4 games.
• 25. Atlanta Falcons (2 - 2) - The Falcons 2 wins came at home against Detroit and Kansas City. They haven't played well at all in their other 2 games. Matt Ryan is showing signs that he might be a worthwhile starter, but this team isn't too good. Their defense doesn't beat people and their offense's strength is their running game that hasn't been as good as the stats have looked. I do think that Michael Turner should bring back the Dirty Bird from the Jamaal Anderson days. That was always fun.
• 24. Seattle Seahawks (1 - 2) - To be fair, Seattle has had everyone they have had even try to play reciever get hurt and they should be getting a few guys back this week. Yet, the only team they managed to beat so far is the Rams, which really isn't a good sign. If this team was as good as expected they would have been able beat San Fran and would have not gotten killed at Buffalo. Look for them to lost against this week when they travel out east to play the Giants.
• 23. Minnesota Vikings (1 - 3) - I'm going to start by saying I dont think that All Day is one of the best in the league. He's good but he plays behind a mauling O-line and he looks like he might be injury prone. That said, the Vikings are one of those teams that plays good defense and runs the ball but still loses games. I believe you can win like that but you need some sort of production at the Quartback position. When Gus Frerotte is the answer.... you didn't prepare properly for the test.
• 22. San Francisco 49ers (2 - 2) - This team is going to be in a lot of games because of Mike Martz's offense. The problem is his offense is so boom or bust that it put a lot of pressure on the defense, leaving them with bad field position and little rest. Their defense isn't good enough for them to win a lot of games this year. It'll look like they are close weekly but they are still miles from being a good team.
• 21. Indianapolis Colts (1 - 2) - Oh how the mighty have fallen. I don't know what exactly is wrong with this team. Like, its not one of those things where you can just point and go "There it's that player/unit's fault". Their whole team just seems like it is off. They have always been a team that relies on everyone being on the same page but they haven't been there this year. Still, I'd be surprised if they don't burst out of their slump and make the playoffs. Peyton Manning gets benefit of the doubt.
• 20. Arizona Cardinals (2 - 2) - The whole NFC West is amongst the bottom twelve teams in the league. One NFC team is going to be sitting home this season while one of these bums makes the playoffs. That said, the Cardinals will probably be the bums that make the playoffs. They are going to be hard to watch as long as Warner is the Quarterback. I watched him as a Giant. When he wins games he is good but when he loses them man does he lose em hard.
• 19. New England Patriots (2 - 1) - Admitted bit of Patriots hatred here. But until Matt Cassel looks anything but below average, I can't climb them up the board. Brady made up for their defense's weaknesses by forcing opposing teams to pass to keep up. This defense is old and slowing and has problems stopping the run, especially late in the game after teams have been grinding them out all game. They are the worst team in their division right now.
• 18. Miami Dolphins (1 - 2) - Look out for the Dolphins this year. I will not be picking against them with any confidance all year. This is a Parcells run team, with a Parcells picked coach, and a bunch of Parcells picked guys. They run the ball well and stop it well too. Pennington is good for what they have right now. Forget about last year, that was last year. This year they look good. Watch out for some more of that Wild Phin offense too. Ronnie Brown is a freak.
• 17. Jacksonville Jaguars (2 - 2) - They have won their last 2 games, but both of them were on game ending field goals. Both their O-Line and their D-Line are battling the injury bug. On the other hand, the 2 games they lost were to the Bills and the Titans, two of the three teams still undefeated. Can't fault them too much for having a hard opening schedule. This team is only playing decently now, but I can see them getting better as the year goes on.
• 16. Chicago Bears (2 - 2) - The Kyle Orton led Chicago Bears. If you've seen the Bears in the last few years you know what to expect. They are going to play good defense and Devin Hester changes everything on special teams, but no team is going far with the Quarterbacks they trot out there.
• 15. New York Jets (2 - 2) - The Jets are in a weird spot for me right now. I love Brett Farve as much as the next guy, but there is something about this team that doesn't look too hot. The team just seems average all around. They are good but I think this is going to be another of those seasons for Jet fans. Win 1.... Lose 2... Win 2.... Lose 1.... Win 1... Lose 1....
• 14. Green Bay Packers (2 - 2) - They would be ranked a little higher if not for the fact that I'm worried about the injury at Quarterback. Behind Rodgers is a pair of rookies and while I was really high on Brian Brohm coming out of the draft, reports that Matt Flynn looked better during camp have me worried about them both. The Pack do still have a defense that is better than it gets credit for and a reciever in Greg Jennings who looks like a great one. They'll be competitive for the weeks to come with or without Rodgers.
• 13. Denver Broncos (3 - 1) - First thing's first, Cutler is a great Quarterback in development and Brandon Marshall is better than TO. The problem? They still haven't solved their defensive struggled of the last few years. Any time that gives up 33 to the Chiefs probably has a problem. They are in for a shit load of these 33-31 shootouts.
• 12. Philadelphia Eagles (2 - 2) - Another one of these teams in the middle that I'm kinda both ways about. On the won hand they look good in all phases of the game. They are pretty good at doing pretty much everything. The problem is that for the last few years the Eagles have managed to look good and still lose games. During the game they look great but the final scoreboard shows otherwise.
• 11. New Orleans Saints (2 - 2) - The Defense is pretty bad down there in Nawlins but Brees has been playing so good that it doesn't seem to matter. He's missing his top 2 recievers, but he just goes on without missing a beat. They are going to be another team that wins shootouts, but there aren't many QBs I'd take over Brees in a shootout.
• 10. San Diego Chargers (2 - 2) - Two words.... actually it's two letters.... LT. LT LT LT. Yeah yeah yeah about Gates and Rivers and Chambers and Cromartie.... The Chargers have the best all-around running back to ever play the game. They are going to win their usual 12+ games and make the playoffs because of LT, everyone else is just a bonus.
• 9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3 - 1) - Tampa is weird. Every weekend I go in thinking that this weekend is going to be the one where Tampa loses the game, but they don't. I have to chalk this oddity up to Jon Gruden. He finds out how to win weekly and they have a gutsy bunch down there. Gutsiest of all? Matt Bryant. I couldn't have performed like he did. My heart goes out.
• 8. Baltimore Ravens (2 - 1) - The Ravens play great Defense week in and week out. Flacco looked a the part of the in over his head rookie Monday night, but that shouldn't be an issue. He is a playmaker. They'll run the ball well and Flacco will make a few plays a game. They'll win the games that Flacco doesn't give away.
• 7. Carolina Panthers (3 - 1) - Carolina has played good football under the radar here all year. They won the first two that everyone thought they would lose without Steve Smith, and then lost to the Vikings in a game that was just a bad match up for them overall. They handily beat the Falcons Sunday and contenders beat bad teams like that. The only thing I'm worried about is Delhomme's arm falling off. As long as that doesn't happen the Panthers will win most weeks.
• 6. Pittsburgh Steelers (3 - 1) - If it wasn't for how bad they looked against the Eagles I would definately have them ranked higher. Big Ben wins football games when he has time in the pocket. Their defense historically is tough and they play great football at home. If they get Fast Willie back quickly they'll be one of the best AFC teams in the league this year.
• 5. Dallas Cowboys (3 - 1) - Part of it might be the Giants fan in me, but I don't think Romo is that great a Quarterback. He makes Farve-like decisions sometimes and doesn't have the arm for some of the things he tries to do. Overall though they play really good football and their offense is near unstoppable. The T.O. situation might be finally coming to a head though.
• 4. Washington Redskins (3 - 1) - After the way they looked in week 1, I figured it would be a long season, but they got those offensive problems straightened out quickly. After they beat the Cowboys this week, they proved that they belonged in the best division in football. Clinton Portis is always a treat to watch as well. He runs well and always plays till the end of the play.
• 3. Buffalo Bills (4 - 0) - The 4 - 0 teams are the best teams in football. Until somebody beats you, you are the best. The Bills are the definition of playing good in all three phases of the game. No one of their units jumps out as one of the best in the league (okay, maybe their Special Teams) but as a combined overall team, they are hard to beat.
• 2. Tennessee Titans (4 - 0) - Titans coach Jeff Fisher is probably the best coach in the league. No one gets as much out of his players year in and year out like Jeff Fisher does. Kerry Collins takes the brunt of a lot of old guy jokes these days, but he has been to a Super Bowl and can make the plays necissary to win the game. It doesn't hurt when you have a budding star at running back in Chris Johnson.
• 1. New York Giants (3 - 0) - Go ahead, call me a homer. I'm a firm believer in the idea that the Champion is the Champion until somebody beats them. The Giants won the Super Bowl and haven't lost a game yet this year. Add to that fact that they are number 4 in total offense and number 4 in total defense (No one else is in the top 5 of both) and you've got the easy choice for best team in the league....Right now.

That's it, thats the rankings. I'll get at you again tomorrow with some more.

-Big Derf

It's A Start Right?

Hey everybody. I'm your friendly neighborhood Derf and this is my new blog. As the title suggests this blog is obviously going to be about sports. Football is going to be the main topic but since I play a lot of fantasy sports I follow a lot of sports so there will be plenty of baseball and basketball as well (sorry hockey fans). I'd also like to take time in this first post for a quick disclaimer- I'm from Jersey and am a New York sports guy so don't be surprised if you get a bit more about New York teams (specifically the Giants) than every other team.

Now what can you expect out of my blog? Two main things. One, I spend far too much time browsing sports news and will tip you off to whats good and what isn't. Secondly, I have many opinions of my own to express. I'll let you decide if I actually know what I'm talking about.

Enjoy

-Big Derf