Week 5 Picks

Hey guys. Derf here, back to give you guys some Week 5 picks. I figure Friday is a good day to do it, and intend to do it earlier in the day on Friday's to give everyone time to get their bets and office pool picks in. Of course, I started writing this on Friday afternoon and got distracted adn now it's technically Saturday...but still. Fantasy Football opinions will either be up later in the day or sometime tomorrow. Anyway, right on to the picks.

Indianapolis Colts (-3) at Houston Texans - This one is shaping up to look nothing like I figured it would before the season started. I had expected the Texans to have already won two games and the Colts to be undefeated. Oh how I love the NFL. Anywho, the Texans need to win this game, but unfortunately for them the Colts do as well. If the Colts don't make the playoffs it will be a colossal disappointment and I think that after their bye week they should come out crisp and be making plays from the get go. The final score will be close, but the game won't really be.
Colts 28 Texans 21

Tennessee Titans (-3) at Baltimore Ravens - Baltimore probably should have won that game on Monday night against the Steelers. Unfortunately for them they didn't and now they are due to play another hard nosed football game against the Titans this week. The Titans have looked good... Really good, which makes it weird to pick against them. I have no rhyme or reason other than my gut instinct, but for some reason I think that the Ravens will win. Ray Lewis' team isn't going to get out physicaled two weeks in a row.
Titans 13 Ravens 21

San Diego Chargers (-6.5) at Miami Dolphins - The last time we saw the Dolphins they were laying a whipping down on the Pats with their Wildphin offense. Most people don't think we will see it be too effective as the season continues, but I think it will be. Ronnie Brown is not human. Everyone seems to forget that he was on his way to leading the NFL in yards from scrimmage on the worst team in the league last year until he got hurt, and the game against the Pats was proof that he's back. Yeah, the Chargers have a lot of talent on their team, but they are just one of those teams that doesn't always play to their talent level. Can't do that against a Parcells team.
Chargers 20 Dolphins 24

Kansas City Chiefs (+10) at Carolina Panthers - The Chiefs aren't that good of a football team. They aren't going to win a lot of games this year. However, that said, they run the ball very well, well enough that they should be able to stick close enough to Carolina to cover. The Panthers should win this game easily, but they won't. They are one of those teams who plays down to their opponents. They will win though.
Chiefs 13 Panthers 20

Washington Redskins (+6) at Philadelphia Eagles - Sometimes I wonder how they come up with the spreads on some games. I know they come up with a spread to get appropriate betting on each side, but is there really that many Eagles supporters. The Redskins just went in and beat Dallas at Dallas. The Eagles lost to Dallas a few weeks ago and are fresh off a loss to the Bears. I don't care that they were one yard from beating the Bears or a fumbled hand off from possibly beating Dallas. Philly continues to find ways to lose.
Redskins 24 Eagles 21

Chicago Bears (-3.5) at Detroit Lions - Lions and *cough* and Bears! Oh My!..... Seriously though. The Chicago Bears and Kyle "I rock a grizzly beard" Orton (seriously, if it wasn't for that beard could you pick Orton out of a police lineup?) beat the Eagles on Sunday, but that wasn't pretty. The Bears always play hard to pick games. Can you really trust them to win? In other news, The Lions always play hard to pick games. Can you really trust them to win? I think the Lions are the pick here, but thats only cause I think they are owed one for Matt Millen.
Bears 14 Lions 28

Atlanta Falcons (No Line) at Green Bay Packers - There is still no line on this game because of the uncertainty of Aaron Rodgers. Whether or not he plays should only affect how many points the Pack are giving up. Either way I think the Pack will win this one. Matt Ryan is still too raw to take advantage of a beat up Packers secondary and other than the fact that their secondary is battered, the Packers are the better team hands down.
Falcons 20 Packers 27

Seattle Seahawks (+7.5) at New York Giants - If Plaxico Burress wasn't set to miss this game with a suspension, nobody would be worried about the Giants losing to the Seahawks this week. That said, I'm not worried about the Giants losing to the Seahawks this week. Seattle was only a slightly above average team these last few years, they just play in the weakest division in football. They have to fly across the country to play the Giants, who are likely to be in in something to prove mode with Plax out.
Seahawks 17 Giants 31

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3) at Denver Broncos - When given the choice between a bad quarterback and a bad defense, I'll often go with the bad QB. In this case, I think Champ Bailey is way overdue for a multi-pick game, and Brian Griese is just the kind of QB that will giftwrap him one he can take back for a touchdown. Cutler will probably go off as well, cause Brandon Marshall has been all but uncoverable these last few weeks.
Bucs 17 Broncos 28

New England Patriots (-3) at San Francisco 49ers - This section is going to be a lot longer than it really needs to be. The 9ers have looked like any Mike Martz team for the past few years, they can score in oodles, but Martz's offense leaves the defense in bad situations far too often. There is my obligatory thing about the 9ers. The Pats just lost by 20something to the Dolphins, and are coming off a bye week. All I needed to say.
Patriots 38 49ers 16

Buffalo Bills (+1.5) at Arizona Cardinals - This is that game that everyone wants to bet on (or at least should at first glance). There is an unbeaten team playing, well.... the Arizona Cardinals.... And they are getting a point and a half. I've spent most of the week trying to figure out this line and I just plain don't get it. So I'm just gonna go with what logic tells me and pick the Bills. Just don't say I didn't warn you that there was something foul afoot.
Bills 24 Cardinals 17

Cincinnati Bengals (+16) at Dallas Cowboys - I thought the Bengals looked good against the Giants, that maybe they could get their act together.... But not with Ryan Fitzpatrick at the helm. I think Palmer will play this week, but I don't think it matters. The Cowboys are going to hand it to em and hand it to em well. Caution for the future though Cowboys fans, the T.O. clock is ticking.
Bengals 20 Cowboys 41

Pittsburgh Steelers (+4) at Jacksonville Jaguars - This should be a solid Sunday night game. I love teams that run the ball and play good defense, and that's what both of these teams set out to do every week. Unfortunately, neither club has it's full compliment of RBs totally healthy, with the Steelers much worse off. The Steelers have also been having a lot of trouble with the Jaguars for the past few years, and I think it's gonna continue. They'll cover though.
Steelers 14 Jaguars 17

Minnesota Vikings (+3) at New Orleans Saints - Why is New Orleans only a 3 point favorite at home? I know their pass defense is bad, but the Vikings offense is even worse. Drew Brees has been playing out of his mind...as usual... so I guess well within his mind but still blowing my mind. Lance Moore, Robert Meachem? Don't matter who Brees throws to, dude is just plain awesome. I like the home team in a boring Monday Nighter.
Vikings 14 Saints 31